Roshann.my

Gambling
The sure way of getting nothing from something

Lately, I tried gambling. I wanna let people reading this to not gamble coz' it ain't good. Having said this, you're most probably guessing I lost a whole lot of money. But, actually I kinda won a whole lot in only two sessions. Most people would actually tend to believe something called the "Gambler's Fallacy".

Test yourself: You are flipping a coin, and you are not cheating. You have just flipped 7 heads in a row. Is your next flip more likely to be:

1. Heads
2. Tails
3. Heads and tails are equally likely

The correct answer is 3, heads and tails are equally likely. Answer 1 is an example of one version of the Gambler's Fallacy (you think that your luck will continue). Answer 2 is an example of the opposite version of the Gambler's Fallacy (you think that your luck will change).

A popular way to explain why answer 3 is correct is the expression, "the coin (or dice or whatever) has no memory". It does not matter what the previous flips were. The coin always shows 50-50 odds.

Probability says that approximately 50% of your flips will be heads and approximately 50% will be tails. It does not say that exactly 50% will be heads. In fact it says that there will be streaks of several heads in a row and streaks of several tails in a row. You will have streaks. But probability gives no clue when your streak will end. And if you think that you do have such a clue, you are fooling yourself.

If you find yourself saying, "I can't quit now, I'm on a winning streak" Gambler's Fallacy. If you find yourself saying, "I can't quit now, my luck's about to change," Gambler's Fallacy (the second version). "Gambler's Fallacy" is another way of saying "stupid".

And yeah, if you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.

P/s: Understand the concept and do not ever catch yourself with it. Cheerios. =)